ENGLAND
LIKELY TEAM (3-1-4-1-1): Pickford, Walker, Stones, Maguire, Henderson, Trippier, Alli, Lingard, Young, Sterling, Kane
- Southgate's youthful squad contain just three players aged 30 or over (Gary Cahill, Ashley Young and Jamie Vardy)
- England hold the advantage in head to head versus Croatia; in their 7 meetings (W4 D1 L2)
- England's haul of 11 goals in this World Cup equals their highest total set in 1966 when they were champions
- The Three Lions have lost their last three semi finals at major tournaments
July 4th 1990, the last time England had reached this stage of the tournament where they lost on penalties to Germany who went on to win the tournament. Looking back at that English heartbreak and Gazza's tiers it probably preceded over two decades of facades both on and off the pitch where star players antics both good and bad were tolerated and caused much scorn among fans the length of breadth of the nation. Paul Gascoigne and David Beckham to name but a few in the past have become little more than caricatures of their former selves, all the more saddening given they were deserving of so much more at International level. Players became better known for their off field than on field achievements and sported the front page of many a British tabloid for all the wrong reasons. However looking at the current English side and one can see why they are so revered among the general public. Just six players out of the English squad were alive the last time England reached this stage and as for their manager? A 19 year old Gareth Southgate was sat at his friend's house enjoying a few beers and a curry, now he has the chance to lead his country to the World Cup Final. After the penalty shootout finale later that night Southgate returned to his Crawley home before re watching the game he recorded on DVR. Little did the then YTS apprentice at Crystal Palace know that he would lead his country out to their next semi final outing not as player but as manager albeit twenty-eight years later. Southgate in that time since has managed to alter public perception of a team that had shamed the country for decades on and off the pitch. Now he has the chance to immortalize himself into English footballing history.
Glancing at the current English set up and one could see why the current group of players are so acclaimed and revered among fans and media alike. Let's take a look back to where several of the current crop of players earned their badges at the previous World Cup. Shotstopper extraordinaire, Jordan Pickford had just completed his second full season of professional football following loan spells at Burton Albion and Carlisle United. Harry Maguire, better known as "Slabhead" just narrowly missed out on the League 1 playoffs with Sheffield United. John Stones had just enjoyed a relatively successful first season at Roberto Martinez' Everton. Along with Kyle Walker, the three Lancashire men form England's defence. Right wing back Kieran Trippier had just enjoyed a stellar season with Burnley securing promotion to the Premier League. Not long after the return of the English football season did Danny Welbeck refuse to swap shirts with the then MK Dons starlet Dele Alli following their 4-0 thumping of Manchester United in the League Cup. Four years later Alli is a key figure in the English national team and Welbeck's role is merely as an impact sub. Weeks before England's 2014 campaign began did only current captain Harry Kane earn his first Premiership start for Tottenham Hostpur. It is clear that Southgate has put his faith in a lot of players that have played lower division football , he has cultivated this with a winner's mentality and this has yielded tremendous results. Where several English teams before him have tolerated prima donnas, Southgate has instilled a work ethic and honesty to England, one that has attracted the following of neutral fans. A lot can change in the space of World Cups but what's changed with England?
While the majority of fans believe England have turned a corner this tournament both spiritually and itellectually it was as Gareth Southgate noted in his pre match presser former manager Roy Hodgson who had set the wheels in motion. Hodgson each handed Dele Alli, Jess Lingard, Raheem Sterling and John Stones their debuts and took the time necessary to nurture each one and inform them of what was expected. There is much documented about team unity in the current camp but it was Southgate who's work behind the scenes cannot be overrated. The Watford born man has coached many an underage setup in St.George's Park and would have built up rapports with many of the current crop. This respect is largely reciprocated from the players as the England manager is known to talk with his players and seek their advice rather than talking down to them as previous coaches have been accused of. Although some critics will argue that England have stumbled upon Southgate following Sam Allardyce's ill fated spell at the helm, no one can question the legitimacy of the appointment now. Southgate has proven to be a shrewd operator and his goal this tournament was to simply give the players a memory they will never forget. He has made being called up for national duty more than a chore which for several previous campaigns all reporters, fans and players can testify to. He has invested in young players such as Liverpool's Trent Alexandor-Arnold and Chelsea' Ruben Loftus-Cheek who could very well embody the legacy of Russia 2018 for years to come and use such a tournament to springboard their careers. England's manager has taken the approach of using this tournament as an illustration of what can be done in future years rather than just targeting another trophy at hand. His inclusiveness of each squad and staff member is paramount to this. This approach coupled with the success the English are enjoying at youth level and infrastructures they are currently putting in place could well cement England's position at the top table for many a year to come.
Returning to tomorrow's game and the English side that takes to the field against Croatia will have been components of a system Gareth Southgate and first team coach; Steve Holland engineered following their expedition to Russia for the Confederations Cup of June last year. Rather than picking players then building a system the pair took the bold approach to build a system and then fit the players they have at their disposal into it. They came to their recommendations following studies of how teams such as Joachim Low's Germany and Juan Carlos Osorio's Mexico set up in the tournament, whilst favoring a three men defense before building the team up. A key component of that is a reliable shot stopper and ball playing keeper and England have certainly found their man in Jordan Pickford who arguably gave the best goalkeeping performance of the tournament in his masterclass versus Sweden. Pickford is supported by the Lancashire contingent of Kyle Walker, John Stones and Harry Maguire who are all competent of carrying the ball out from the back and feeding England's midfield. Pickford and his back three all have immense confidence in each other and have improved as the tournament wagers on. In front of them Liverpool man, Jordan Henderson has done an outstanding job anchoring the English midfield. Those who complained Henderson passed only sideways and backwards have gone quiet as he has been on the front foot in Russia, whether it be trying to play balls over the top for Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling or closing down opponents high up the pitch and sticking up for his team-mates with the referees. His talismatic influence has not gone unnoticed and England are unbeaten in their last 30 games when he has played. Wing backs Kieran Trippier and Ashley Young have been rightly applauded for their performances to date and it is their set piece deliveries which have contributed to a staggering eight out of eleven England goals.
In front of Henderson is expected to be Dele Alli and Jesse Lingard who are both presumed to have survived late pressure from Eric Dier for a starting berth. They will be tasked to push onto Modric and Rakitic early on, cutting off the Croats creativity at their source and expose Croatia for having no natural tacklers in their lineup. However should Brozovic start expect a more tempered, controlled press from the English duo. Much has been said about Raheem Sterling in the buildup to Wednesday's clash at the Luzhniki and there has been much clamor for Marcus Rashford to inherit a starting place. In spite of concerns regarding the Manchester City man's finishing it is Sterling I believe who should start behind Harry Kane tomorrow night. Pep Guardiola's teachings may prove invaluable to England tomorrow night as if the game should become stretched don't be surprised to see Sterling occupy a deeper position to enable the likes of Alli and Lingard to saunter forward. On the other hand should the game get tight expect Sterling to venture out wide in the hope of causing Vida and/or Corluka a few aches. England's advancement to Sunday's decider will be predetermined on a lot of things none more important than what service star man and captain Harry Kane is supplied with, granted that the Spurs man is out in front of the chasing pack for the Golden Boot he has been starved of surface in the knockout rounds and has managed just ten shots on goal this tournament. For Spurs, Kane averaged nine shots per game in the second half of last season. A tournament which has given the English fans so many memories from Kane's late winner against Tunisia, England's first ever penalty shootout win in World Cup history to Pickford's heroics versus Sweden and beer drenched celebrations nationwide. they will be hoping that the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow come Wednesday night will be home for one more. Although whatever happens come the final whistle tomorrow both Southgate and his team will have left their legacy on this tournament, the England boss will be acutely aware that life is a business and shots of redemption are few and far between. In the most abnormal of British summers they will hope to continue the trend . Maybe Southgate was right wearing a waistcoat, after all you do need a pocket to hold your medal.
CROATIA
LIKELY TEAM (4-1-4-1): Subasic, Vida, Corluka, Lovren, Strinic, Brozovic, Rebic, Modric, Rakitic, Perisic, Mandzukic
- Croatia only obtained membership to FIFA and UEFA in 1993
- Before undertaking this position, head coach, Zlatko Dalic never once played for or coached any of Croatia's national teams
- Thirteen of the Croatian players are appearing at their second successive World Cup, while 18 of England's 23-man party are at the tournament for the first time
- Captain Luka Modric is having quite the World Cup so far and so far has played the most minutes (485), covered the most distance (50.8km), scored the most goals (2), had the most amount of passes (305), created the most amount of chances (12) and recovered the ball as often (28) than any other Croatian player.
Tomorrow night in Moscow will be the first ever time Croatia play against England in a World Cup fixture. However it is the second time in their history that they have reached the semi final stage. Given the political situation at home and grife between several star players Zlatko Dalic would have been forgiven for feeling pessimistic about his side's chances this summer in Russia. Since the group stages Croatia have endured two gruelling 120-minute epics, with nerve-shredding penalty shootout wins in the knockout rounds so far against Denmark and the hosts. How much more energy do his players have left? The "Vatreni" have played 240 minutes in six days and exhausted players pose the biggest problem for the Croatia coach. Also, his side have scored nine goals so far, with eight different goalscorers contributing and captain Luka Modric earning rave reviews for his performances. That is great for Dalic, but the coach is undoubtedly looking for a greater contribution from his forwards. This is a proud nation and a proud football team, and to reach a World Cup final would represent a truly remarkable story. However to better understand what the current Croatian side could achieve one must look at their predecessors from 1998.
Croatia were appearing at the World Cup for the first time in 1998. A handful of their squad had moved through the ranks of Yugoslavia’s youth setup and won the 1987 Under-20 World Cup before featuring for the country at Italia ’90. Now, on a world stage, they had their own flag, their own identity. It was emotional. Croatia were drawn in Group H alongside Argentina, Jamaica and Japan. Croatia proved too hot for the Jamaicans and Japanese to handle with Suker and Prosinecki in the ranks. Prosinecki was a divine footballer, he also made history as the first player to score in a World Cup for two different countries (he netted for Yugoslavia in their 1990 clash against UAE). Next up Romania who were dispatched in the knockout rounds thanks again to Davor Suker. Croatia progressed to a quarter-final against Germany. Croatia captured the hearts and minds of a nation sending football fans the world over into shock with a resounding 3-0 victory over the Germans owing to a Goran Vlaovic beauty before the Suker roadshow made its way to the Stade Gerland in Lyon. The semi-final against France was tight but thrilling. Suker had been well-marshaled by Desailly and Blanc but struck the opening goal right at the beginning of the second half after a majestic pass from Asanovic. As replays were still being shown of the goal, Croatia were dispossessed on the edge of their own box, a through-ball from Djorkaeff found Lillian Thuram who swept home the equaliser. With twenty minutes left, the full-back popped up again, brilliantly curling a left-footed drive to the bottom corner from the edge of the box. The dream was over for Croatia but what a journey it had been,In the 3rd/4th place play-off against Holland, Prosinecki and Suker scored either side of a Bolo Zenden strike to secure a marvelous achievement for a true cult World Cup outfit.
What would Zlatko Dalic do to have a striker the caliber of Davor Suker now given Mario Mandzukic' troubles in front of goal this tournament? Suker scored six goals at that World Cup but it was not just the amount of goals but the type of goals he scored. Finishing, first touch, skill, craftiness all combined he was arguably one of the great strikers of his time. In comparison the 32 year old Mandzukic is not a proven scorer and to date has one goal this tournament. What the Juventus man lacks in firepower he makes up for in work rate and given Croatia's problems in the full back position seasoned punters would not be surprised if Mandzukic makes his way back there tomorrow. Although it is a given he will produce the selfless, no nonsense type of display we have become so accustomed to tomorrow Dalic and Croatia will require more end product from him up front. Mandzukic in particular will look to situate himself on Kyle Walker, the weakest aerially of all English defenders from wide ball situations. Ante Rebic who is the perfect combination of technique and physique will be tasked with supplying ball to him from the right while more will be expected from Inter's Ivan Perisic who although oozes class when slaloming forward is susceptible to leaving his left back, Ivan Strinic vulnerable from time to time out of possession. Should he get the nod again, ex-Leicester man Andrej Kramaric is the perfect anecdote to Ante Rebic and Croatia possess in him a cool headed player capable of the sublime as shown through his Bundesliga outings last season for Julian Nagelsmann's Hoffenheim.
Rakitic who ailed through most of last Saturday's game versus Russia was easily overshadowed by his earlier performances against Denmark and in the group stage. Captain and compatriot, Luka Modric will be hoping the Barcelona man makes a prompt return to form. Modric has been mesmerizing for the 'Vatreni" this tournament with his glorious first touch and range of passing he more than ably makes up for his physical deficiencies. Mere statistics will never tell you the full story of just how good this generational player truly is. He is the hushed architect, gliding around the pitch effortlessly and always in the right place at the right time. The Real Madrid man is central to the Croatian gameplan. Dalic will be keen on how best to extract the most from his key men in midfield. In the first half versus Russia both Rakitic and Modric were not expecting the high Russian press and as seen per Russia's first goal they were far from sound when ran at. The introduction of Inter Milan's Brozovic at half time in the holding midfield role enabled the pair to play higher and ensured greater creativity and controlled play in their final third whilst offering better protection to the Croatian back four. Dalic has shown to be tactically sound thus far and combining this with the mini defensive crises he has at the back I am sure Kramaric will make way for Brozovic here and Croatia will revert to the 4-1-4-1 formation which served them so well in their 3-0 win over Messi and Argentina. The knockon effect this will have is that Mario Mandzukic will not be left as isolated as previous games with both Rebic and Perisic not having to play as deep given Brozovic' cover. Right back Sime Vrsaljiko will miss Wednesday's semi final while there are doubts over Besiktas defender Domagoj Vida who if fit is expected to slot in at right back with ex Tottenham Hotspur man Vedran Corluka coming into the side at center half alongside Liverpool's Dejan Lovren. Corluka coming into the side is all the more significant given that Croatia will have to give away to their usual high defensive line. To say that the Croat makes Per Mertesacker look quick is disparaging to both. Ac Milan's newest recruit; Ivan Strinic will start on the left side of defence while penalty shootout hero and Monaco stopper Danijel Subasic will look to produce more heroics behind the defence.
Zlatko Dalic wouldn’t have been widely known outside of Croatia before the tournament – except for a few quiet, sandy regions of the Middle East. Prior to taking on his current role as Crotian coach Dalic spent three trophy laden years at Al-Ain before his sacking in January 2017. Dalic has been well received since his appointment last year and his bold selection decisions have been a regular and expected feature of the Croatian side. Off the field, the fraud trial of Zdravko Mamic – whose brother Zoran (part of that 1998 World Cup squad) replaced Dalic as Al Ain boss – threatened to derail their World Cup blueprint, especially with captain Modric and center-back Dejan Lovren also implicated as discussed in detail before. However he has kept it all together and Dalic delivered one of the finest Croatia performances ever in the 3-0 thumping of Argentina in the group stage, arguably the finest performance of the tournament thus far. Despite the epic result, Dalic was irked after the match when "La Albiceleste" coach Jorge Sampaoli failed to congratulate or even greet him at the final whistle.“I have never left the pitch before shaking hands with the coach of the opponent whether I won or lost. I even gave him a Croatian kit before the game. Now I hope he will remember it forever.” The economy is performing badly, young people are emigrating in droves, state leadership is at an impasse and there is a general political disenchantment. Speaking of politics, in the slipstream of the World Cup, important decisions are being made in the country on a daily basis, laws are being passed and controversial projects, such as pension fund reform, are being set in motion. But hardly anyone is interested at the moment, thanks to the World Cup, there is finally a reason to rejoice in this small nation. They are someone in the world of football again just like the crop from France 1998. People are finally proud of their own country again.If England have the opportunity to transform a generation with World Cup success such an achievement could transform an entire nation in Croatia. Dalic has certainly made a lasting impression during the course of the last month. Lead Croatia to a maiden World Cup final and even an inaugural title, and he is unlikely to ever be forgotten.
WHERE GAME WILL BE WON
In a tournament where set pieces have accounted for over 30% of all goals scored, it is England who have emerged as one the countries to profit greatest with their execution and running patterns exceptional. One in every Six of England's corners have resulted in a goal thus far. Croatia's lapse of concentration for Mario Fernandes' and Russia's equalizer last Saturday would have aroused Gareth Southgate's troops. How Zlatko Dalic decides to deploy his two star men; Modric and Rakitic will too go a long way into deciding Wednesday's outcome. If Croatia are to line up with just the two maestros in the middle they will leave their defence largely exposed to the English triumvirate of Kane, Sterling and Alli. Starting Marcelo Brozovic or Milan Badelj will be necessary if the Croats are to have any success at the Luzhniki.
PREDICTION
England's legs and minds to carry them over the line in what will surely be an emotional and battle hardened contest between both sides. England's midfield to enjoy a surprising large share of the possession and in captain Harry Kane and the much maligned Raheem Sterling they will have the firepower up front to see them through to Sunday's showpiece. "It's Coming Home" to remain number one for now.
England 2 - 1 Croatia