RUSSIA
LIKELY TEAM (4-2-3-1): Akinfeev, Fernandes, Kutepov, Ignashevich, Kudryashov, Zobnin, Kuzyaev, Samedov, Golovin, Cheryshev, Dzyuba
- The last five host nations to feature in a World Cup quarter-final have all progressed to the semi-final (Italy in 1990, France in 1998, South Korea in 2002, Germany in 2006 and Brazil in 2014)
- Excluding shoot-outs, Russia are winless in their last seven World Cup games against European sides (D2, L5), with their last victory coming in 1986 (also against Hungary)
- After having 10 shots on target in their first two games, Russia have managed two in their subsequent two matches (one versus Uruguay and one against Spain)
Although it was questionable prior to the start of the tournament whether the people of Russia offer their support to their national team, there is no doubt post victory against Spain last Sunday that World Cup fever has hit the nation. It was arguably their greatest victory post US election. Goalkeeper, Igor Akinfeev has even had an eagle named after him in the Moscow zoo ("Igor the eagle"). On Saturday they will look to continue the winning tradition of host nations at the World Cup when it takes on Croatia at Fisht Olympic Stadium in Sochi. They're aiming to become the fifth host nation in the past seven tournaments to reach the semi-finals. It is all remarkable given their pre tournament form where since the start of Euro 2016 they lost 11 out of their 24 matches. They allied fears of being just the second ever host team to exit the tournament at the group stages with their 5-0 thrashing of Saudi Arabia and 3-1 humbling of Mo Salah's Egypt. Now just 180+ minutes of football separate them from a quite remarkable shot at World Cup glory.
Hero from last Sunday's victory over Spain, Igor Akinfeef cemented his place in Russian football folklore saving penalties from Koke and Iago Aspas to ensure Russian victory on home soil. Named as man of the match, it was a long overdue glory for the Russian on the big stage. Akinfeev’s professional career began some 16 years earlier when he was named on the bench in July 2002 for a Russian league match with Krylia Sovetov. As of 2004 he came CSKA's first choice keeper and later that season made his Russian debut. By the end of 2005 he was his nation’s undisputed number one, displacing the far more experienced Sergei Ovchinnikov, and praised for his unflappable maturity. Despite predictable comparisons to the legendary Lev Yashin, Akinfeev never appeared to let such praise go to his head, winning two more league titles, two domestic cups and the 2005 UEFA Cup. His role in all of these triumphs saw him crowned the nation’s best player in 2006. The 2007 season brought an impressive run in the Champions League, with Akinfeev going 362 minutes without conceding a goal.
Several years of domestic league and cup success followed with periods in between where he lost his place as Russia's number one. In 2013 he once again claimed Russian player of the year. He also contributed greatly to getting his nation to the 2014 World Cup, conceding just four goals in 10 matches as Russia finished above Portugal in qualifying.The next season he won the league again, breaking Yashin’s clean sheet record in the process. Two notably poor tournaments in 2014 and 2016 have served to dampen the opinion of Akinfeev. Once again he displayed incredible mental strength to come back, becoming the all-time leading clean sheet holder both for Russia and in the league in 2016/17. Akinfeev was named Russia captain in November 2016. Guiding the nation at the 2017 Confederations Cup and at the World Cup in 2018, he has served to lead by example. Akinfeev himself said this in 2006: “In Russia when you turn 30 everybody forgets about you.” He’s 32 now, and his heroics against Spain have ensured that he isn’t likely to be forgotten any time soon.
You don't need to be a scholar of Russian history to know that this is not a country that likes to play the underdog. When you're the largest country in the world and you have military might and natural resources, it doesn't really fit. Nor does it jibe with the narrative of the Czars or the Cold War or the current Russian president or Olympic success. However given recent performances versus Uruguay and Spain where the Russians ceded possession and retreated back into their own half for large periods of both games they may just have to fit that narrative against a midfield heavy Croatian side. Manager Stanislav Cherchesov who for months before the tournament was the subject of much scorn from Russian fans and media cannot do much more. Other than the permanently injured Alan Dzagoev and Golovin, who, lest we forget is still just 22, there are no box-office players. They are not going to win admirers for their style of football. Throw in the fact that even their opening win was met by sneers the minute the "distance covered" and "number of sprints" statistics were released, showing Russia were basically outworking everyone. When former head of the Russian FA and former Russian Minister of Sport Vitaly Mutko gets banned for life by the International Olympic Committee after they find "systematic manipulation" of the anti-doping system, and he also happens to be the guy who hired you, then it's not hard to see how life gets tricky for Cherchesov. Those fears of not advancing from the group stages have been prove unfounded and in international football where results are paramount Cherchesov is achieving that.
Cherchesov was asked whether Croatia was the match of his life, and that of his players. “I hope that the most important games are still ahead of us,” he said, with a shrug of which Putin would have been proud. Cherchesov paused. He had made his point. “Is this a good answer?” he asked. “Brevity is the sister of genius, as Anton Chekhov said.” His team selection will be likely just contain one change from last Sunday with ex-Chelsea man; Yuri Zhirkov missing out due to injury being replaced by the Villarreal winger; Dennis Cheryshev as part of a formation change from 3-4-3 to 4-2-3-1. Rubin Kazan man Fyodor Kudryashov will slot in at left back. The evergreen Sergei Ignashevich will be partnered by 24 year old Ilya Kutepov. Brazilian born Mario Fernandes of CSKA makes up the back four. The impressive Roman Zobnin will anchor the Russian midfield alongside Zenit's Daler Kuzyayev who will look to play between both boxes. The hard working Alexsander Samedov who has been a permanent fixture in this Russian side since the tournament opening will take his place on the right flank . Cheryshev and Golovin will form the remaining part of the trio expected to play in behind Artem Dzyuba. Cheryshev is capable of class on his day with his majestic left boot while the ever impressive Golovin continues to match kilometers of lung busting runs with the flair and creativity that has attracted interest from Europe's big boys. If Russia are to continue their fairytale story it will be mainly down to their ability to extract the most out of young guns Cheryshev and Golovin who with their combination of raw talent, tenacity and skill are capable of beating any opposition on their day.
CROATIA
LIKELY TEAM (4-1-4-1) : Subasic, Vrsaljko, Lovren, Vida, Strinic, Rakitic, Rebic, Brozovic, Modric, Perisic, Mandzukic
- The Croats' only previous World Cup quarter-final was their 3-0 win against Germany at France '98
- Of their last 12 World Cup goals, 10 have come after half-time
- The Croats have lost their two previous World Cup games against host nations, losing 2-1 to France in the semi-finals in 1998 and 3-1 to Brazil in the group stage in 2014
On Wednesday June 6th all Crotian fans and players worst fears were confirmed when a court held Luka Modric and Dejan Lovren, were unlawfully paid 50% of the transfer fees that Dinamo Zagreb received for their services from Tottenham Hotspur and Lyon respectively, only to forward most of that money to Mamic, who was a Dinamo executive at the time, and his family. Mamic signed personal contracts with many players during their early development years, obliging them to share their earnings with him. Acting as club executive, Mamic would put clauses in the players’ contracts specifying the split of any transfer fees between them and the club. Once they received that money, they would pay Mamic off. In the case of Modric and Lovren those clauses were added and backdated after the players had been sold. Mamic was already in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where he fled on the eve of the verdict. For years Mamic held key positions both at Dinamo and in the football federation, although he was forced to officially withdraw from them during the court case. Over time, he weaved a web of influence spanning far beyond football. He has friends in high places – politicians, judges, owners of media conglomerates, even police officials.
It is important to note that even president Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic is a close ally of Mamic. The former Dinamo and Croatian football federation executive was one of the financial backers of her presidential campaign, a guest of honour at her inauguration ceremony and organised various dinners and birthday parties for the president.The trial date has not been set but the Mamic ruling supports the contention that Modric was not telling the truth, and if found guilty the Real Madrid midfielder could be facing six months to five years in jail. Lovren, who faced Modric in the Champions League final in Kiev last month, is being investigated for giving a false testimony as well and is expected to be charged. There are others in Croatia’s World Cup, including Sime Vrsaljko and Mateo Kovacic, who had similar contracts with Mamic. And then there is Andrej Kramaric, the highest-profile case of a player who refused to sign with Mamic. Rumours of a lack of togetherness in the squad have been present for years. Given all this Croatia fans would have been forgiven for feelings of trepidation coming into this summer's tournament, however if they can by the hosts in Sochi, fans and players alike could be looking at a maiden World Cup final appearance amid all their off field troubles. As its president, Davor Suker, said before 2016 Euro, putting aside all problems such as allegations of institutionalised corruption within his organisation: “When the big tournament starts, we’ll all be in checkers.”
With teammate and midfield partner Luka Modric scrutinised constantly in Croatian media it is Ivan Rakitic who has taken over as the central figure in the Croatian team. Rakitic born and raised in the German speaking part of Switzerland attended the FC Basel academy and his breaktthrough season came in 2006/2007 where by season end he had garnered interest from Ac Milan and Barcelona. He chose to move to Schalke in the Bundesliga in the summer of 2007. That very summer, his family became engulfed in a crisis. Rakitic is part of the Croatian diaspora. His parents are Croats. His father is from Sikirevci, a town in Croatia; his mother is from a Croat family but grew up in what is now Bosnia and Herzegovina. Rakitic played all his representative football for Switzerland's youth teams, including four appearances for the under-21s, but he decided to declare for Croatia in June 2007 when he got the call from Croatia's then-national team manager Slaven Bilic. On the same night, his parents' house in Mohlin was besieged. All through the summer, the family received hate mail. Their house was defaced with graffiti. Rakitic nailed down a starting place in the Croatia national team for the UEFA Euro 2008 finals the following year, but he was one of the players—along with Luka Modric—who failed to score during a penalty-shootout defeat to Turkey in the quarter-finals. At club level, his career continued to prosper. After three-and-a-half seasons with Schalke, Rakitic joined Sevilla in La Liga, where he became a sensation. His heroics led to a €20 million-plus move to Barcelona in June 2014. He has suppressed his personality—the all-action player that fans from Basel, Schalke and Sevilla remember—to better serve the team ethic at Barcelona. 'I run for Messi because he deserves it.' Rakitic knows the role he has at Barca. He knows he can't do the same as he did at Sevilla. He's a different kind of player." Rakitic's successful transformation to his innate intelligence. He speaks seven languages (Croatian, German, Italian, English, French, Spanish and Catalan). Until now, perhaps. During this summer's FIFA World Cup finals in Russia, Rakitic has come out from under the shadow of Modric. It is a revelation for supporters of his national team who have watched him play second fiddle to him for over a decade. They are now dovetailing effectively. It had always been a puzzle about how to fit the two playmakers together into the team. Now, playing in the World Cup finals in a variation of that system—a 4-1-4-1 line-up—the pair is thriving.
Croatia will hope to take Saturday's game to the hosts and start quickly. They will look to their superstar midfield to dictate the game and control the tempo. Brozovic, Modric and Rakitic in particular will look to maintain possession keeping the large partisan Sochi crowd quiet. However the will be wary of the trap Spain fell into last Sunday who although completed the most amount of passes ever recorded in a World Cup match made little headway towards the Russian goal. There is no doubt regarding the Croatian trio's star quality and range of passing. The are able to switch the play within an instant. Rakitic will play more box to box while Modric will look to thread balls through to the unrushing Mario Mandzukic, Ante Rebic and Ivan Perisic. Rakitic will hope to avoid being gassed out as he was previously against Denmark. Rebic has recently been in fine form for club and country and is always good for a goal. On Croatia's right side the mecurial Ivan Perisic and overlapping Vrsalijko of Atleti will pose Russia different problems to that of the Spanish last Sunday. Despite their checkered pre-tournament record, the squad has also limited opponents to one or fewer goals in 14 of their past 16 games overall and maintain a tight ship at the back. Left full back Ivan Strinic is carrying a knock and is epxetced to be fit while Liverpool's Dejan Lovren is partnered by Beskitas' ponytailed defender Vida at the heart of the Croatian defence. Danijel Subasic of Monaco will defend their goal. Zlatko Dalic' side are unquestionably better technically and tactially than the Russians are generally tipped to advance to next Wednesday's semi final. Although World Cup success might not heal a nation where corruption is fervent at this present time for the players and manager alike it is now a genuine possibility.
WHERE GAME WILL BE WON
Saturday's game in Sochi is likely to be decided by whoever comes out in top in the middle third. Zobnin, Gazinsky and Kuzyaev although limited technically get around the pitch and any combination of two will provide the necessary work ethic and guile required to beat the Vatreni. Much has been documented about the talent at Dalic disposal regarding the Crotian midfield but any success they are likely to have on Saturday will be down to the willingness of Mandzukic, Perisic and Rebic to stretch the Russian back four. Although greatly talented Modric and co will be hoping not to fall for the similar trap which Spain did last Sunday in Moscow. Do not be surprised to see the Croats go direct from time to time in their build up play.
PREDICTION
Although on paper Croatia have the star names and experience to take Saturday's clash, this World Cup is not the norm but the exception. Russia will have been bouyed not only by their recent shootout success over Spain last Sunday but the recent performance of Japan, Sweden and Belgium the past few days will have given weight to the argument that this is the most open world cup in years. Backed by the partisan Sochi crowd coupled with the off field troubles in the Croatian camp I expect Russia to keep their dreams of a momentous World Cup triumph on home soil alive.
Russia 2 - 1 Croatia (AET)