BRAZIL
LIKELY TEAM (4-3-3): Alisson, Fagner, Thiago Silva, Miranda, Marcelo, Fernandinho, Paulinho, Coutinho, Willian, Firmino, Neymar
- Despite having the most shots (77) and the most shots on target (31), they have scored just seven goals and never more than two in a game
- Tite's side have gone 310 minutes without conceding
- The first and only time the sides previously met at the global showpiece was in the last 16 in 2002 when goals from Rivaldo and Ronaldo earned victory for a Brazil team that would go on to lift the title.
Who continues to try to turn the World Cup into a personal biopic Neymar has been the most polarizing player of this World Cup , brilliant one moment, ridiculous the next. Coming into the tournament on the back of a three-month injury layoff, he has had 24 shots in Russia, the most of any player, and has two goals to show for it. With Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo out, the stage is Neymar’s but unfortunately his performances are often not only about skill. The Paris Saint-Germain player has invited ridicule (and plenty of memes) for his theatrics on several occasions after being fouled. Rolling over and over on the pitch is not how anyone wants to see Neymar. When Neymar is good he is one of the best – he shouldn’t let his incredible skill be overshadowed by silly play-acting. Last Saturday PSG teammate Kylian Mbappe showcased his merits for the Golden Ball award, one is expecting the former Barcelona man to illustrate his this Friday. It's noteworthy however that Neymar is part of a more prudent Brazilian setup these days. The idea of Brazil playing carefree, samba-style soccer where they are happy to concede four as long as they score five, hasn’t been valid for a long time. They of course have plenty of attacking talent but the team is built around a defence that has kept 19 clean sheets in 25 matches. Brazil have only conceded one goal this WC and have conceded the least amount of shots on target (5) this tournament. Behind their evolution is Tite.
Carrying a momentum that bears ominous hallmarks of their winning campaign of 2002, for Brazil’s coach Tite, the preparation for the Belgium game will have begun as soon as they boarded the plane in Samara after the win against Mexico. Since his appointment post Dunga in 2016, meticulous preparation, allied to a pragmatic flexibility, have been the hallmarks of Tite’s Brazil. Brazil now play like an European side with Brazilian talent. Tite used his time away from the game in 2014 to travel and study football around the world, meeting the likes of Carlo Ancelotti who was Real Madrid manager at the time to take the opportunity how the Italian integrated the likes of Ronaldo, Bale and Isco into the Madrid side. Then the ex Corinthians boss met his former rival Mr. Bianchi at Boca Juniors and discussed various footballing aspects. Tite’s attitude towards learning made him understand with better conviction the aspects of the beautiful game and the Brazilian way of doing things. In tandem with his assistant of 18 years Cleber Xavier, whose influence is such that is given the job of answering tactical questions in press conferences, Tite has managed to give Brazil a clear playing identity subtly distinct from the sunny, fanciful football of popular legend. Build from the back. Press from the front. Mark zonally. Adjust your defensive block to the characteristics of the opposition. An obsessive student of the game, Tite is wedded to his ideas, but not so wedded that he isn’t prepared to abandon them when the need arises. In their last-16 game against Mexico, Tite switched from their usual 4-3-3 to 4-4-2 in the second half, bringing Neymar more central, closer to Coutinho, with Gabriel Jesus sacrificing himself on the left wing. Pragmatism, not ideology, is his mantra, and his motto of “merecer vencer” (“earn the win”) is a recognition of the suffering required to win the biggest prizes. Simply turning up and being Brazil isn’t really going to cut it any more. This is in many ways a brand new Brazilian side: not a single player from the 7-1 defeat against Germany four years ago was in the starting line-up against Mexico. They don’t fear defeat. They have yet to fall behind in a game so far this tournament and against Belgium it will be interesting to see if they do how will they respond.
The absence of Casemiro through suspension breaks up the highly effective triangle he and the two central defenders, Miranda and Thiago Silva, had formed but the back of the midfield is an area in which Brazil have cover. Fernandinho is used to operating as a breakwater in front of two central defenders, dropping between them if necessary. He is, though, a more dynamic presence than Casemiro and while that means he may be more effective at joining counterattacks, it also perhaps offer Belgium and De Bruyne in particlar an opportunity to counter back against him. It is key to note that Brazil lack a traditional playmaker from deep as they traditionally had so in the past. Willian and Neymar are therefore required to drop deep and link the play uncoventially. Marcelo's return will bring an added dimension to the Selecao who in particular will look to cause the Red Devils numerous problems down their left with Neymar and Coutinho operating in the half spaces available to overload their left flank. Without the ball in transition Brazil's positional play has been so good they are yet to be exposed. The full backs are largley withdrawn for most part allowing Casemiro in previous games (Fernandinho tomorrow) to just cover the area within the width of the penalty box.
Brazil as shown in previous tournaments are masters of flair, executors of the outrageous and style so synonymously embedded and ingrained with the likes of Pele, Socrates, Romario, Ronaldo and Ronaldinho. However their advancement to the semi-finals will likely depend on how well they do the basics in Friday's clash led by perhaps their most extravagant star player to date, Neymar. Brazil have long been everyone's second favorite team when it comes to tournament football. It is quite something to say that in Russia they are not interested in the slightest to cultivate new followers. This group of players are here to win, to leave their mark, they have no time for moral victories or fleating performances of previous World Cups. Although a relatively young side for the likes of Thiago Silva, Miranda, Marcelo, Fernandinho this is their last likely chance of World Cup success. Led by the dictatorial Tite and star player Neymar the Selecao mean business and they do not care one iota who's watching. The omens point towards a match up versus France or neighbors Uruguay in the St. Petersburg stadium July 10th for a place in this years final.
BELGIUM
LIKELY TEAM (4-3-3): Courtois, Meunier, Kompany, Alderweirald, Verthongen, Witsel, Fellaini, De Bruyne, Hazard, Mertens, Lukaku
- Anderlecht academy products make up 35% of Belgium’s squad and so far they have scored more goals than the entire Brazil team
- Belgium have not won any of its games against South American teams in the knockout stages, they hasn’t even managed to score a goal
- That 3-2 victory over Japan was the first time a team has overcome a two-goal deficit to win outright since West Germany beat England in 1970, and the first to do it in regulation since Portugal came from three down to beat North Korea in 1966.
Belgium's team of stars that will face Brazil are the result of a coaching revolution that started in 1998; "The Purple Talent Programme". At its headquarters in Brussels, technical director; Michel Sablon proudly hands over a copy of the original blueprint, dated September 2006 and titled “La vision de formation de l’URBSFA” with the intention of revolutionising Belgian football. Belgium’s emergence as one of the strongest nations in world football has exceeded all expectations. A country with a population of only 11 million, with just 34 professional clubs competing across two leagues, has produced – and there are no reservations in Belgium about using this term because it is widely accepted as the only description befitting of their talent pool – a golden generation of footballers. For the federation, the watershed moment came in 1998 when Belgium were eliminated at the group stage at the World Cup finals in France. Bob Browaeys, who has coached Belgium youth teams at every level and played a major part in putting together Sablon’s blueprint, says there was “no unified vision on youth” at that point. He remembers 30 federation coaches, drawn from the Dutch- and French-speaking parts of the country, meeting to discuss a radical change in approach. Tapping into philosophies and training methods in the national setups in Netherlands and France, their neighbours in the north and south, as well as at clubs such as Ajax and Barcelona, Browaeys and his colleagues proposed that every Belgium youth team would play 4-3-3 and that work should begin on producing a totally different type of player. Money after co hosting the European Championships in 2000 was spent on youth development. A new national football centre was built in Tubize, on the outskirts of Brussels. The number of people enrolling on the entry-level coaching course increased tenfold after the federation made it free. A joint initiative with the government saw eight Topsport schools introduced between 1998 and 2002, with the aim of providing the most talented boys and girls, aged between 14 and 18, with additional training during the normal curriculum to increase their chances of reaching the top. Clubs such as Anderlect and Genk have been largely behind their success. Those sessions – four mornings a week and two hours at a time – continue to be taken by coaches that work for the federation. Courtois, De Bruyne, Mertens and Dembele were some graduates to name but a few from those schools.
“A defining game for our generation,” captain Vincent Kompany said of the Brazil game.
Roberto Martinez's team can win this tie and progress to the semifinals for the first time since 1986
Friday night’s match in Kazan is shaping up to be the most entertaining of the quarter-finals. It’s the favourites against the leading scorers. Belgium have scored at least three goals in the three matches Roberto Martínez picked his first XI; their second string were also victorious against England but just not so prolific. It will be intriguing to see what line-up Martínez selects against Brazil. Both Marouane Fellaini and Nacer Chadli will hope to have earned a start after they turned the game against Japan on its head. Their 3-2 win in injury time felt like a watershed moment for a team so long derided as tournament lightweights, one that finally proved they have the guts to gild their immense natural talent. Save for his role in Nacer Chadli's stoppage time winner against Japan, De Bruyne has yet to hit the dizzying heights in this tournament as he did during Manchester City’s title-winning season. Martinez has deployed De Bruyne a lot deeper than he normally plays for Manchester City, gathering the ball from the defence and trying to play it through the lines rather than picking the final pass. If Belgium can work the ball into the final third then they can rely on the tournament’s most potent attack, with 12 goals so far. Hazard and Mertens will certainly provide Brazil with a proposition they have yet to face with their inside to oustide runs and interchangeable movement.
Belgium’s big-game players need to show up in a big way. something they have only sporadically done during the tournament: the first half against Tunisia, the second half against Panama, the last 20 minutes against Japan, and - for the most part - not at all against England. The rest they got during their dead rubber should help guard against fatigue here, but they will not have needed to watch Brazil’s wins against Serbia, Costa Rica and Mexico to know that this is a team with the capacity to make them run. Roberto Martinez would be a brave man to continue with his favored 3-4-3 approach versus the Brazilians given how the Japanese picked off Belgium's wing backs with ease last Monday. Oceans of space were continually left in behind the marauding pair of Thomas Meunier and Yannick Carrasco and this will have been of great concern to the Spaniard. Not only will Brazil look to attack this vacated space but also their high press will cause the Belgian's great angst as Roberto Firmino is expected to apply the pressure against the susceptible Vincent Kompany. Roberto Martinez however though at times more all talk no walk is a shrewd operator and an avid student of the game . He would have seen this and although addressed it immediately with the substition of Marouane Fellaini Fellaini the test of Brazil this Friday would have caused him many a sleepless night since. They are expected to revert to their 4-3-3 formation of yesteryear with left wing back Yannick Carrasco misisng out and Marrouane Fellaini joining Axel Witsel at the base of the Belgian midfield. The knockon effect of Fellaini providing more structure to the centre of midfield alongside Witsel is that this will enable to not be bound by his defensive duties allowing him to play further forward and disable Manchester City colleague Fernandinho. Martinez will in particular have a watchful eye on the Brazilian trio Neymar, Coutinho and Willian whom all interchange so splendidly between the lines. In a 3-4-3 Belgium would be clearly outnumbered and Neymar could have a field day with Marcelo and Coutinho in particular causing confusion down Belgium's right side. Belgium will hope to isolate star man Eden Hazard on against the vulnerable Fagner whom struggled against Mexico's Carlos Vela for large periods in their round of 16 clash.
Thierry Henry's role as assistant manager cannot be understated. He has come in for plaudits from Eden Hazard who has mentioned the correlation between the Frenchman's arrival and the Red Devil's surge in form. Romelu Lukaku came out and recently said that Henry had improved the United man's work rate off the ball, decision making what to do given certain scenario and mental preparation.There is no doubt under coach Roberto Martinez the Red Devils have taken the initial strides required for a top level international to compete at the highest level. However the Belgians have been woefully undertested the past two years in both qualifying and friendly matches. Since the climax of the 2016 European Championships the highest ranked team they have faced have been Portugal. The remaining teams were compromised of Cyprus, Gibraltar, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Greece, Estonia and Saudi Arabia. It is clear the real litmus test is set to come with the Brazil game on Friday. A World Cup Quarter Final in which the stakes could not be higher, careers could be defined, heroes will emerge and a new footballing dynasty could be born.
WHERE GAME WILL BE WON
This game could be a slow burner. Belgium have only scored in the first half in one of their four matches and Brazil have scored five of their seven goals after the interval. It should catch fire in the second half, though.
In a game where three of the tournament’s most expensive players will be on show and two master tacticians in charge it could be an individual moment of brilliance which decides the contest. The tactical tussle should be fascinating; the stakes could scarcely be higher. If Brazil and Belgium live their best lives for 90 or 120 minutes, we could be about to witness a genuine World Cup classic.
PREDICTION
Shrewd, mean, rigid are all terms which one would never connote with a Brazilian team however I expect them to give a performance befitting of such adjectives tomorrow. Coach, Tite has implemented several tactical schemes and principles against top class oppositions all over since accepting the post in 2016 and a quarter final tie with Belgium will be one he would have prepared for ostensibly no doubt. Roberto Martinez on the other hand may not just have all the answers yet with Belgian's golden generation. Neymar to redeem some of the goodwill he's lost with a performance expressive of a player who knows this is his time to shine.
Brazil 2 - 0 Belgium